Overview
In this book the authors explain
their brainchild called the “selectorate” theory. They shows that our
belief that there is a great difference between tyrants and democratic
“representatives” is just a convenient fiction, all kinds of rulers aim
at their own survival, not “the public good.”
内容简介
为什么同样一个人可以在一个国家推行善政却在另一个国家施行最残暴的独裁？在这里，与其说制度是答案还不如说是问题本身。为什么比利时的制度越来越民主，而同一时期，同一领导人的刚果，却越来越独裁？难道是因为利奥波德二世只爱本国人或者有种族歧视？但后来刚果自己“选”出来的领导人并没有做得更好，仍然是一个糟糕的独裁者。
在《独裁者手册》这本书里，梅斯奎塔和史密斯研究多年，得出了一个能够相当完美地解释这一政治现象的理论，即：不管是国家、公司还是国际组织，其政治格局不能简单地以“民主”和“独裁”来划分，而必须用民意选民、实际选民、胜利联盟的数字多少来描写。如果胜利联盟的人数很多，那么这个国家就是我们通常所说的民主国家。反过来，如果胜利联盟的人数非常少，那么不管这个国家有没有选举，都是事实上的非民主国家。据此，很容易明白：在刚果，利奥波德二世只需要让少数人高兴就足以维持自己的统治；而在比利时，他必须让很多人满意才行。
不得不提，对任何想理解政治的真正运作方式的人来说，《独裁者手册》都是一本必读的书，无论是政治领域的政治还是商业界的政治，无论是在独裁国家还是在民主国家。
——转自豆瓣网
About the authors
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita
(born Nov. 24, 1946) is the Julius Silver Professor of Politics and
Director of the Alexander Hamilton Center for Political Economy at
New York University and a Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at
Stanford University. He specializes in international relations,
foreign policy, and nation building. He has built an intricate
computer model that can predict the outcomes of international
conflicts with bewildering accuracy.
Alastair M. Smith is also a
Professor of Politics at New York University. He earned his doctoral
degree at University of Rochester in 1995.
